
It's a longshot in the short-term, but if they succeed the cell industry will be soon shrinking rapidly into irrelevancy. All that wasted money! Too bad because all things will be Internet Protocol-based — the best true convergence. The Wi-Fi spots today will burgeon and blossom via new WiMax meshes, and later via satellite-based Internet canopies (for higher "roaming" cost, for sure). Your PC and iPhone (using the same guts and GUIs) will hop along an IP constellation, with certain "visitor" fees applied but no single-provider lock-in.
Sorry, I just don't buy it. I can't see the iPhone having this kind of impact on the phone market. Some demographics will buy it (rich CEOs, spoiled kids, those who really want a converged device) but the real power users, those that depend on their phone for business communication will never go for it. That's my opinion... :-)
...and from reading this extremely biased article, I'd almost think that the writer is on Steve Job's payroll.
Hmmm, I'm not catching the "bias" you reference as much as the highly speculative nature of the proposed end result. His assumptions are built around some questionable reasoning at best - but after all it's a blog, which in journalese is synonymous for no journalistic standards at all. He's jumped the shark on the convergence theme - a common mistake when bored technology writers have too much coffee and sugar in the morning.
There are a number of companies that are hoping that this comes to fruition and consider it a part of their long term vision. EarthLink, for one, is investing in mobile VoIP as a part of their municipal wireless efforts. Of course for this to happen, it requires WI-fi to be much more readily available than it currently is, but we seem to be diligently moving in that direction as a society. I imagine this change is much further off than the writer makes it sound, but it is probably much less far-fetched than it appears at first glance.
I only wish the iPhone would have more storage... The gui is amazing though.
Don't worry - 2nd gen (probably just in time for black-friday X-Mas 2007?) will probably see a large boost - 8 gig and 12 or 16 gig for the two models is my guess (otherwise for SURE January Macworld 2008).
With Apple having all but perfected storage for the iPod it can't be long in coming.
in terms of power consumption, the iPhone will need to be flash memory based, so there are stilll limitations. then a gain new technologies never seem to scare apple so maybe there is a new way on the horizon.
iphone is amazing.. it will sell crazy units too.. i go to a technology school and everyone i talk to wants one, and everywhere im at i hear talk about it
The DEMO is amazing. We'll see if it works as advertised.
I've never been a fan of Apple products, being one of those corporate PC types, but there is no denying the user experience of OSx, iPod, and iPhone, are superior to anything MS has ever created. I only wish they were able to create systems that played well with the current corporate 'safe choice', Microsoft. They finally have a real OS, that's far superior to MS technology, and they actually seem to look at how users use systems instead of how they think they should be used.
Microsoft should start paying attention to the users instead of Wall Street. The problem Apple must overcome is what I mention above, playing well with MS.
by a 25yr PC veteran (pre-PC)
I only wish they were able to create systems that played well with the current corporate 'safe choice', Microsoft. They finally have a real OS, that's far superior to MS technology, and they actually seem to look at how users use systems instead of how they think they should be used.
Playing well with "corporate 'safe choice' Microsoft" would most likely require (at the very least) a significant investment on Apples part, one they probably don't want to undertake. Furthermore, they've had a "real" OS for a while now :) Also, inroads into the corporate world, at this point, seems like a Sysiphian task, if only because so much infrastructure is built on Microsoft and RIM.
And yes, the demo was amazing, however the skeptic in me says that that is the mark of a good salesman. But, I'm willing to bet that the demo Jobs gave will be nothing compared to actually using this thing. I've talked to a few people who've heard the rumors but didn't see (or even know about) the Macworld keynote, and explaining it to them simply does not do it justice. As an example, I had seen and heard of the iPod before I bought my first one (a 3rd Gen) and when I finally had it in hand and used it, every demo and explanation paled in comparison. Same goes for when I first used OS X.
I propose a new tag: apple-fanboy. I can't wait to see the line of people who will go out and drop $500 on a phone(!) that will probably be buggy as hell the first few years (why do we have to pay for companies to beta-test their products anyway? but that's really not the point...) and is frankly, just another over-priced status symbol. Everything Steve Jobs does is "revolutionary" and "amazing" and "changing the landscape"? I don't think so; the man's ego is perhaps only bested by Trump's (who at least doesn't pretend to be something other than what he is).
Ignoring all of your Jobs and Apple fan bashing, I must agree that the first few months (perhaps a year) of iPhone buyers will probably have to deal with all the bugs. I will wait a while before making this purchase.
as noted below, apple does not often screw the pooch with rev. a foul ups.
yes there have been a few, but it's not like what happens when you get something hot off the press from smallFlaccid..
the steve takes this very seriously and i'll be putting my money on a rev a phone that works as advertised.
I believe the iPhone will be a huge hit after some months (in sale) and that they are really correct when they say they've revolutionized the cell phone. Although I also believe they'll lose ALOT of clients since they're forcing the provider and since they're not allowing third party applications. That said, I believe it'll sell like fresh loaf!
fresh loaf? haha never heard that one before.
i dunno. where i am, cingular isn't very good, so i don't see it making much of a dent with people I talk to. i've never understood why phone manufacturers sign excusive deals with providers. I can definitely see it from the providor's end, but what benefit is it to the manufacturer? a good phone will sell on any provider, provided it's a good provider. wow. lot's of providing there. heh.
I think the original author's vision is sound, but will happen with or without the iPhone and not in the very near future.
And I don't see why the iPhone is doomed to be buggy at launch - no more so than any new Nokia or Motorola anyway, and we all buy those in droves?
Mohan, the exclusive deal in this case is to subsidise manufacturing costs and enable the random access voicemail feature that Steve Jobs demonstrated - it apparently requires specific software at the provider.
Apple has had some much-publicized 1st generation hardware problems of late, however since this thing won't be out for about 6 months, perhaps they'll have more times to iron out the kinks. I hope they realize that a phone -- especially a $500 phone -- requiring a 2 year contract is not something people will be keen (or able) to upgrade every year.
On that note, I'm guessing they'll have AppleCare in addition the the monthly insurance option?
If anyone is interested in an iPhone, watch Apple's Support forums closely starting in July.
I think the original author's vision is sound, but will happen with or without the iPhone and not in the very near future.
A very good point. I agree, that's the way the world is heading. And I'm sure it'll happen in my lifetime. But...is the iPhone the device that will usher in that new era? I'm kind of doubting it...
I hope it will at least make some manufacturers at least re-consider some of their UI choices -- and I don't mean simply slapping a touchscreen on a handset.
I'm also hoping that if this sells well carriers will also consider what features they block. Allowing a Wi-Fi enabled device (that supposedly auto detects, no less) is gutsy on the part of Cingular, since they won't make any money from anything done over a Wi-Fi network -- which means you may not need that expensive data plan, or even as many minutes on your basic plan. A lot of places I find myself in (home, school, even some of the bars I go to) all have Wi-Fi (though I'm sure the bars are password-protected). I don't use the browser on my phone right now at all because of the data rates and the crappiness of the software, but if I had a decent browser on a phone and could use it over Wi-Fi basically free of charge I'd reconsider that :)
Just off the top of my head, I can only think of a couple 1st gen hardware problems in recent years:
1. 1st gen Nano screen scratches
2. 1st gen Intel MacBook battery/heat issues (see also: Dell/Sony)
3. 1st gen Intel MacBook random shutdown/reboot
This in the '06 year when they've launched:
1. 1st gen Intel Mac Mini
2. 1st gen Intel Mac Pro
3. 1st gen Intel MacBook
4. 1st gen Intel MacBook Pro
5. 1st gen Intel iMacs
6. 1st gen Intel Xserve
7. 1st gen/completely revamped 2nd gen iPod Nano
8. 1st gen (2nd gen in name only) iPod Shuffle
9. Bootcamp
10. Intel based Tiger
11. 5th gen iPod
12. iLife 06
13. iWork 06
14. Aperture
That's really not too bad a track record.
Personal anecdote: My 1st gen bondi-blue 233mhz iMac is still up and running (10.3.x, no less), and my 1st gen iPod is still running strong after 1 battery replacement in its 5 year service.
I'm also hoping that if this sells well carriers will also consider what features they block. Allowing a Wi-Fi enabled device (that supposedly auto detects, no less) is gutsy on the part of Cingular, since they won't make any money from anything done over a Wi-Fi network -- which means you may not need that expensive data plan, or even as many minutes on your basic plan.
I'm guessing Cingular didn't have much say in enabling WiFi - that's another positive aspect Apple brings with it into the cellphone market - they say "We're launching a phone. Here's what it will do. Lots of people are going to buy it and will need a provider. Would you like to partner with us as the sole provider and capture all those new customers?"
I doubt there were many feature requests coming from the Cingular side of things.
1. 1st gen Nano screen scratches
2. 1st gen Intel MacBook battery/heat issues (see also: Dell/Sony)
3. 1st gen Intel MacBook random shutdown/reboot
Those issues got a lot of press (probably more than they should have) and I have no doubt that the iPhone will receive the same scrutiny as well, if not more. I wouldn't be surprised if they got taken to court by some guy because his fingers left smudges on the screen.
I'm guessing Cingular didn't have much say in enabling WiFi - that's another positive aspect Apple brings with it into the cellphone market - they say "We're launching a phone. Here's what it will do. Lots of people are going to buy it and will need a provider. Would you like to partner with us as the sole provider and capture all those new customers?"
Actually according to CNN Money/Fortune article no one at Cingular, and according to David Pogue, a host of people at Apple, didn't see the final product until it was, well, final (or perhaps more appropriately, ready-to-manufacture, as I'm guessing that this thing is ready to be produced pending FCC approval and software tweaks).
Even so, Apple didn't show Cingular the final iPhone prototype until just weeks before this week's debut. In some cases, Apple crafted bogus handset prototypes to show not just to Cingular executives, but also to Apple's own workers.
But you make a fair point, and I'm hoping/guessing that if this sells well enough Apple can take that same negotiating power to other carriers as well.
... I'm hoping/guessing that if this sells well enough Apple can take that same negotiating power to other carriers as well.*
*See iTunes/music industry and/or iTunes/film industry.
My sentiments exactly -- though the RIAA still gives 'em hell from time to time on the flat-rate pricing for singles.
I really can't bring my comments to the table at this precise moment. The reason, to put it bluntly, is because there are so many Apple fanboys around it makes me sick every time I come across an article or blog post about it. Hell, even my beloved Mike Davidson spread his cheeks and received full entry from the iPhone. It's the simple fact that everything Apple touches has to turn into gold, and I'm sick of hearing about it.
I will admit, it's got an amazing design, and some of the ideas are really ideas only Apple would go ahead with thinking of, but all of this is just risk. It sounds amazing in theory, but that's all it's been shown as so far, theory. The risk of implementing these will be very high, and by announcing this phone Apple have essentially put it all down to this. This probably is one of the biggest things Apple have tried to do. If they mess this up like they did with the ROKR (I don't care if it was all Motorola's fault, because Apple always had a say in the matter) then Apple have frozen themselves.
That being said, I think creating a phone was a smart idea, although a huge task on a company that to my knowledge have never created a phone before. Apple computers will only go so far and the iPod won't be around forever. However, this keynote was pretty much simply about the iPhone and the name change. To someone who already is under contract with o2 for 18 months with the best phone on the market at the moment this makes the keynote a waste of time for me.
If they mess this up like they did with the ROKR (I don't care if it was all Motorola's fault, because Apple always had a say in the matter) then Apple have frozen themselves.
From CNN Money:
The Cingular partnership was especially complicated. Cingular had been a partner when Apple made its first foray into the phone business, providing iTunes software for the ill-fated Motorola (Charts) ROKR, unleashed in 2005. The norm in the telecom business is for carriers to dictate to phone manufacturers which features and technologies they want to offer to their subscribers, which is anathema to Apple culture. But in the case of the ROKR - which I reviewed as the STNKER - it was Motorola's meddling that drove Apple nuts. When the ROKR finally emerged, clumsy and underpowered, Jobs held it up on stage with all the enthusiasm of a man holding a dead rat by the tail. Jobs came out of the ROKR experience even more determined to maintain total control over what he called the reinvention of the telephone.
All that means nothing to me. If Apple really did have a problem with it they wouldn't have let it go on the market. Also, I doubt the latter to be true, as working up a bad relationship with a company you're dictating as a 'bad' company is very bad business.
As I said before it does look like an amazing piece of technology, but do we want an all-in-one device like that? Also, what about the upgrading options? Are any phone companies going to copy the idea? I still think it's way too early to be cowering down to the big mighty Apple, proclaiming the end of the mobile phone world. I want to see it in action before I believe anything.
LG has a touchscreen phone. Also it seems like a lot of people want an all-in-one device, the kicker is they want one that does everything well, and the iPhone looks to be a first step in the right direction. My Samsung A900 can make calls (of course), record video and take pictures, email, IM, browse the web, and play MP3s. Problem is it doesn't do any of these particularly well (and thanks to Sprints somewhat lackluster coverage where I live, calls are sometimes hit or miss).
I agree, it's way too early to call this the "end of the cell phone," and I too would also like to see it in action, but having said all that I'm pretty excited about it. I guess that makes me a fan boy.
The DEMO is amazing. We'll see if it works as advertised.
I've never been a fan of Apple products, being one of those corporate PC types, but there is no denying the user experience of OSx, iPod, and iPhone, are superior to anything MS has ever created. I only wish they were able to create systems that played well with the current corporate 'safe choice', Microsoft. They finally have a real OS, that's far superior to MS technology, and they actually seem to look at how users use systems instead of how they think they should be used.
Microsoft should start paying attention to the users instead of Wall Street. The problem Apple must overcome is what I mention above, playing well with MS.
We've apparently got a six-month wait for real product, and if it becomes available from Verizon by then, the only problem I'll have is living down the jabs from my staff for carrying around an Apple.
by a 25yr pre-PC veteran (CP/M)
I only wish they were able to create systems that played well with the current corporate 'safe choice', Microsoft.
They have - just pick up any Intel-based Mac, and if you need to run your Windows apps simultaneously, a copy of Parallels.
I know about that, but why should a user have to switch between two radically different interfaces to do their job?
I also know about Samba (mostly works), and all the other almost plays well with MS software.
We've got a long way to go before I start swapping out our 400 PC's for Mac's.
With Parallel's newest feature, "Coherence" you don't even switch between interfaces (or between OS's, rather) - your Windows programs appear as a regular Windows type "window" within OS X just like any other application - there is no "switch" between operating systems. Are you running some kind of highly specialized apps that don't have an equivalent on OS X?
Just think of the time and money saved on support calls and anti-virus software. Your switch is might already be paying for itself ;-)
I may have read the article incorrectly but the premise that advertising revenue will drive all this convergence is the biggest turn off for me. I want my phone so I can communicate with other people, not to pay for endless advertisements.
Apple is now an incredibly strong company that is an excellent position to make big bets.
Before Steve came back to Apple, the company was teetering on the edge of insolvency. After some very strong quarters built on the backs of a lot of profitable G3 and G4 towers, back in the days before the iPod started selling well, Apple was a $6-7b revenue company that sold around 3mm Macs per year, made a small profit each quarter and had about $4b in cash in the bank.
As of the most recent quarter for which results have been released (the quarter ending 9/30/06), Apple is on about a $20b revenue run rate, sells almost 2mm Macs per quarter, makes a significant profit each quarter, and has about $10b in cash.
That is a strong, formidable company.
One thing I have seen people fail to mention is battery life for this thing. A full screen display? unless steve jobs has revinvented the battery, the battery life on this thing will be horrendous. My new phone has something like 284 hours of battery life and something like 10-12 hours of talk time. Have fun keeping this thing plugged in 24/7.
284 hours?! Reminds me of the line in Ghostbusters: "Why worry? Each of us is wearing an unlicensed nuclear accelerator on our backs."
Up to 5 hours talk/video/browsing, up to 16 hours audio playback
So yeah, not so good, although I think that's a standard iPod connector on the bottom and if that's the case at least I won't have to buy any new chargers :)
I'm guessing the "sleep/wake" button on the top is really the power on/off switch. I'm sure it will have settings for the backlight and the display itself.
I'm guessing the "sleep/wake" button on the top is really the power on/off switch. I'm sure it will have settings for the backlight and the display itself.
I believe it's a "sleep" button that functions as such, and if an incoming call arrives , it auto-wakes (a la sleep on a Mac, which, when 'receive faxes' is enabled, the Mac wakes up to receive the call). Of course, I may be mistaken, but that was my interpretation.
That's what I was thinking too, however I didn't see any actual power on/off button or option. I'm hoping it's MacBook-style sleep, that should help a lot with battery life.
I also noticed on the website there's nothing listed for standby time, and at the bottom of the page:
Up to 5 hours of talk time depends on network configuration. Up to 16 hours of battery life refers to music playback. Up to 5 hours of battery life is based on H.264 1.5-Mbps video at 640-by-480 resolution combined with 128-Kbps audio.
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